NSÍ vitnar í grein í Financial Times

Frá Náttúruverndarsamtökum Íslands:

Alcoa vill yfirtaka Alcan því þeir eru of litlir hvor um sig til að standa á eigin fótum þegar þenslan minnkar og verðið lækkar eins og forstjórinn, Alain Belda, viðurkennir í ummælum sínum.

Íslenskt hálendi hefur verið lagt undir vatn til að bera í bakkafullan læk af áli.

Eins og grein Financial Times hér að neðan gefur til kynna er mikil framleiðslugeta og nægar birgðir af áli í heiminum:

„Alcoa’s bet on aluminium“
Útgáfudagur 08.05.2007 kl. 13:54 | Síðast uppfært: 08.05.2007 kl. 13:54

„Alain Belda, chief executive of Alcoa, has an interesting line in explaining big takeovers. Talking about the bid he has just launched for Alcan, Mr Belda said: “You have to be bigger than the hole you can fall in.” But what if taking on that extra weight risks tipping you over the edge?It’s easy to see why Alcoa wants to link up with its Canadian rival to form the world’s biggest aluminium group, not least in order to prevent Alcoa itself being taken out. After two years of fruitless talks, Alcoa has embarked on the risky path of a hostile bid. In that time, long-term aluminium futures have risen by almost half. That appears to have given Alcoa the courage now to launch what is, in effect, a leveraged buy-out. Including retirement provisions, the bid implies pro forma net debt of $42bn – 3.9 times total 2007 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

Deleveraging quickly would depend on disposals and on aluminium prices staying strong. Industry consolidation ought to mean better discipline on capital investment and pricing. The difficulty is knowing whether China – the marginal aluminium producer with surplus capacity – would also exercise restraint on output. Goldman Sachs estimates that, currently, China’s off-exchange stocks of aluminium might be more than double official inventories. Certainly, in spite of repeated run-ups towards $3,000 a tonne, worries about surplus metal have capped aluminium’s price. If prices moderate, a highly leveraged producer might face the unappetising prospect of cutting its own output to reduce slack in the market.

That Alcoa’s shares have risen 8 per cent since the bid might suggest investors are bullish on aluminium’s prospects. However, until Monday the equities market seemed more sceptical, with Alcoa’s shares flat since the start of 2004, even as aluminium prices rose. Investors probably think that, given possible regulatory hurdles and a list of potential interlopers, Alcoa might well fail to win a bid battle for Alcan. But in taking the plunge anyway, Alcoa has highlighted its own vulnerability to a takeover.

Copyright: The Financial Times Limited 2007“.